Valid: Tue 25 Dec 2018 06:00 to Wed 26 Dec 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 24 Dec 2018 19:25
A level 1 was issued for S Turkey and Cyprus mainly for excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
A strong ridge has built in western Europe, bringing warm air masses north to the Arctic Circle while a long-wave trough in E Europe brings very cold and dry air masses from Russia towards E Mediterranean. A cold front is now crossing (24 Dec,19z) the Balkans, where blizzards are reported. The blocking high over Central and West Europe will keep conditions stable and dry.
The cold air masses over the warm Mediterranean will create rather steep lapse rates and along with the jet-stream which is wrapped around the leading edge of the trough, will create a favorable environment for some strong thunderstorms. The best overlap of CAPE-DLS is marked with a level-1 area, where we expect excessive convective precipitation events and severe wind gusts. Some local hail reports cannot be ruled out, but the meager CAPE values, below 400 J/kg suggest that hail should be smaller than 2cm. Moreover, some waterspouts may form near the coasts, where convergence zones will drive the convective activity in the afternoon Tuesday 25/12.