Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 21 Nov 2018 06:00 to Thu 22 Nov 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 20 Nov 2018 19:19
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across W, S Turkey and Cyprus mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

While a rather dry and stable airmass resides over much of the continental Europe, more active weather pattern prevails over the Mediterranean, thanks to the presence of moister airmass and a number of synoptic-scale disturbances in a strong zonal flow. The steering macrosynoptic feature will be a large cyclonic vortex centered over the British Isles at the mid and upper troposphere, shifting NW-wards. A strong, 20 m/s+ W-ly flow will stretch from the base of the vortex towards Greece and Turkey. Two short-wave troughs are forecast in the zonal flow, the first one crossing Sardegna and Corsica in the morning hours, quickly filling up as geopotential heights rise over the Central Mediterranean. The second short-wave will cross Greece and continue towards Turkey and the extreme E Mediterranean. Isolated to scattered DMC is forecast in conjuction with all mentioned disturbances.

More pronounced severe weather threat is anticipated with the easternmost trough. Combination of rather steep lapse rates and modest lower tropospheric moisture will allow for MLCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg. Combined with DLS of 15 to 25 m/s, decreasing toward east and afternoon / overnight hours, chances will exist for isolated instances of large hail with well-organized multi or even supercells. Enhanced lower tropospheric shear and low LCLs may also support a tornado over the W and SW coastline of Turkey. Further east, shear decreases and the most pronounced threat will be heavy precipitation.