Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 18 Nov 2018 06:00 to Mon 19 Nov 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 17 Nov 2018 09:43
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued across parts of W Greece and SW Turkey mainly for excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

An extensive anticyclone is centered between Scotland and Norway and steers a dry and cold air mass from NE Europe towards CNTRL Europe. South of this anticyclone, numerous cyclonic vortices impact the Mediterranean Sea and surrounding areas.

A broad surface depression weakens just west of Portugal with a frontal wave lifting NE along the SE coast of Spain. Another vortex crosses the Ionian Sea and dissolves over N-Greece.

DISCUSSION

... Coastal areas of W Greece and SW Turkey ...

Ahead of the lifting low, a southerly onshore flow advects a warm/moist and unstable air mass north and results in scattered thunderstorms. 400-800 J/kg SBCAPE and moderate DLS (10-15 m/s) support a few hail events. The main risk however will be heavy rain, especially in the level 1 areas. A low-end waterspout risk exists.

... Coastal areas of S/E Spain ...

Prolonged period of onshore flow results in scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain. Marginal low-tropospheric moisture content precludes the issuance of a level 1 but spotty flash flood events are still possible. A low-end waterspout risk exists.