Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 13 Nov 2018 06:00 to Wed 14 Nov 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 12 Nov 2018 22:49
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for Denmark, N Germany and the coasts of Netherlands mainly for severe convective wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A strong ridge affects most parts of Europe, with its axis extending from Algeria all the way north-east to Russia. Several disturbances surround this ridge, but dry conditions over land limit convective activity. Thunderstorms are expected over the southern parts of the North Sea, far West Mediterranean, E Black Sea and the Levantine Sea. All these areas are affected by short-wave troughs, where the synoptic-scale lift is strong and mid-level steep lapse rates create CAPE.

A level 1 area has been issued for N Europe, where a strong vorticity lobe will cross this area on Tuesday, accompanied by a jet streak, creating some strong DLS. Limited moisture though, and cold low-troposphere keep the CAPE meager and threat level for long-lasting severe storms low. The main threat will be locally severe convective wind gusts, especially near the coasts of Denmark and Germany, but some storms may develop in NE continental Germany. NWP models show that this area will be the most affected by the jet-streak and strong mid-level winds may easily translate to the surface. Forecast hodographs show an "S" vertical pattern of the wind field, so conditions are not favorable for long-lasting storms or tornadoes.