Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 18 Oct 2018 14:00 to Thu 18 Oct 2018 17:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 18 Oct 2018 14:20
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This Mesoscale Discussion was issued to update the synoptic conditions which result in an excessive rainfall event during the following hours over Malta. The already issued level 2 is still valid!

In response to QG forcing atop a mesoscale convergence zone a long-lived MCS is currently going to impact Malta from the W. This convection is fed by a strong S-erly jet due to the favorable placement along the eastern fringe of a cyclonic vortex over NE Algeria.
This MCS moves only gradually to the east, so excessive rain is likely to impact Mala during the following hours as influx of uncontaminated and strongly unstable air persists. Tail-end storms may also see a tornado risk with enhanced LL speed and directional shear. In addition isolated large hail is possible in the strongest cores next to a local severe downburst event.

We expanded the MD to S Sicily to account for the chance for additional activity to the NE of the current cluster with similar hazards.