Valid: Tue 18 Sep 2018 06:00 to Wed 19 Sep 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 17 Sep 2018 20:59
A level 1 was issued parts of Spain, France, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, and Italy mainly for large hail and excessive rainfall.
SYNOPSIS & DISCUSSION
A strong high-pressure system has been established over eastern Europe, stretching west towards France. A short-wave trough coming from the Atlantic on Tuesday will bring a brief disruption to the widespread high-pressure system and storms are expected in a large part of western Europe. Another short-wave trough will cross Ireland, the UK, and Norway where some embedded storms are possible, but the main threat will be non-convective severe wind gusts.
In particular, storms on Tuesday can bring heavy rain especially across portions of NE Spain and Italy with a threat of large hail locally given some >1kJ/kg CAPE solutions within layers of steep lapse rates on the vertical axis. Otherwise, DLS is particularly weak over land and storms will be difficult to cluster into multicells. Storm activity will continue tonight (Monday 17/09) and tomorrow morning, with a new round of storms in the afternoon mainly due to diurnal heating.