Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 04 Sep 2018 06:00 to Wed 05 Sep 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 03 Sep 2018 20:54
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for parts of Portugal and Spain mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the Baltic States, Belarus and some parts of Russia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for the Balkans mainly for excessive precipitation and large hail.

SYNOPSIS

Low geopotentials prevail in Central and East Europe, with two main upper-level vortices visible in the analysis charts, one over the Apls and the second one over the Baltic States. The second one is forecast to remain stationary during Tuesday while the other one to the south will gradually move east towards the Balkans providing synoptic lift to unstable air masses. Another cut-off low remains offshore of Portugal, and a short-wave trough with a jet-streak affects the eastern parts of Spain. Moist and warm air masses can be also found in Germany and Benelux where diurnal heating will drive several storms, in general nonsevere.


DISCUSSION

.... Spain .....

For the second consecutive day, the northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula are affected by a short-wave trough and a strong LL flow of warm and moist air masses from the Mediterranean Sea. Strong convergence zones provide lift to the unstable air masses which take advantage of the strong mid-level flow and form organized clusters of long-lasting storms. These storms will be able to produce large hail and severe wind gusts given the >1500 J/kg CAPE and 15-20 m/s DLS.

.... East Europe ....

Two level-1 areas have been issued in eastern Europe given locally enhanced dynamic lift apart from diurnal heating, with fat CAPE profiles and very moist LL air masses. These unstable environments will feed several storms able to produce excessive precipitation, large hail, and severe wind gusts. Given the overlap of strong LL shear with high CAPE and looped forecast hodographs, some tornadic events are possible near the borders of Belarus and the Baltic States.
Thunderstorm activity will continue during the night.