Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 07 Aug 2018 12:00 to Tue 07 Aug 2018 18:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 07 Aug 2018 12:24
Forecaster: OBERHUBER

As for 12 UTC thunderstorms have already developed over the mountains of E Austria. With upper level flow of 10 m/s in 500 hPa these storms are expected to travel towards east. In the next afternoon hours there will be further initiations in the region. Daytime heating and slight DCVA in front of the approaching shortwave trough will remove CIN, so that CAPE in the range of 1500-2500 J/kg is available. Outflow boundaries of the existing storms are expected to trigger new storms in SE Austria, where surface dewpoints are around 20 °C. Due to the slow storm motion and precipitable water up to 40 mm, the main thread for severe weather is excessive precipitation. Later on, with increasing shear, large hail and severe wind events will become more likely.