Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Fri 27 Jul 2018 13:00 to Fri 27 Jul 2018 17:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 27 Jul 2018 13:02
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

DISCUSSION

West and Southwest Netherlands, West and Central Belgium, North France...

High-based towering cumulus and first cumulonimbi are developing across West and Central Belgium, and a couple of towers are also evident in W France. Convective initiation seems highly likely across most of the indicated region until the early evening.

Although wind shear is only weak to moderate, and CAPE should be only on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg, some storms may produce severe weather. The very high cloud bases of around 3 km AGL provide an ideal environment for evaporatively cooled downdrafts. Some strong local downbursts are therefore to be expected. In addition, some 2-3 cm hail and local flash floods may occur.