Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 16 Jul 2018 06:00 to Tue 17 Jul 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Jul 2018 03:53
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued across N Mediterranean Sea, Corsica, Italy, Adriatic Sea and W Balkan for severe wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough is moving rapidly from the Iberian Peninsula into N and C Italy and W Balkan. The system will produce large scale lifting and draws in an African plume of steep lapse rates and low level moist air from the N Mediterranean. Resulting MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg combined with 0-6 km shear over 30 m/s and SREH values in the 200-300 m2/s2 range suggest potential for supercells with very large hail, with tornado chances enhanced by 15 m/s 0-1 km shear over C Italy. Mesoscale convective systems will likely form with increased threat of organized severe wind gusts, given Corfidi vectors of >25 m/s and strong delta-Theta-E over NW Mediterranean to enhance downdraft speed.