Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 19 Jun 2018 06:00 to Wed 20 Jun 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 18 Jun 2018 23:49
Forecaster: DAFIS
A level 1 was issued for Finland mainly for severe convective wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for Russia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for the Balkans, S Italy and Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and severe convective wind gusts. Large hail is also possible in C-N Balkans. Waterspouts are possible near the coasts.
DISCUSSION
A strong ridge is building up in Central Europe which is surrounded by several troughs, mostly to the north. The boundary between the polar air masses and the north edge of the ridge is creating a jet streak from the North Sea to the Baltic States and later over Russia. I South Europe, one cut-off low can be found west of the Iberian Peninsula and low geopotentials prevail in SE Europe and the Middle East, along with warm and moist low-level air masses. At the surface, an elongated cold front extending from C Europe towards Russia is moving gradually east, replacing the unstable air masses with dry air.
... Finland ....
An intense short-wave trough with high values of positive vorticity advection will cross Scandinavia. Pre-existing low-level moist air masses and synoptic lift will create some thunderstorms, able to produce severe convective wind gusts before the main dry intrusion in the afternoon. NWP models simulate weak to modest CAPE up to 500 J/Kg MLCAPE (IFS) and low EL, thus large hail threat is limited, as well as tornadic events, even though a landspout cannot be ruled out.
.... Russia ....
As the cold front will propagate to the east, synoptic lift along with diurnal heating will create numerous storms. The area with the most favorable conditions for large hail is marked with a level 1 probability as NWP models forecast substantial NCAPE, but hailstones should not become larger than 2cm. High delta-thetae values suggest that locally severe convective wind gusts are plausible.
.... Balkans, Italy, Turkey ....
The weak middle-level flow and the abundant moisture in the low-levels create favorable conditions for flash floods. Storms will mostly remain stationary and wet microburst are well possible. Convective activity should remain offshore after sunset.
