Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 14 Jun 2018 06:00 to Fri 15 Jun 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 13 Jun 2018 16:23
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued across (areas) for (hail|tornadoes|wind gusts|extreme rainfall).

A level 1 was issued across (areas) for (hail|tornadoes|wind gusts|extreme rainfall). (repeat for each level area)

SYNOPSIS

Mid-level vortex slowly moves east across the north Mediterranean. Weak flow will be present to the north of it over most of Europe except for northern and north-western Europe affected by the intense polar jet. At lower levels, convergence zone is quasi-stationary across the Balkans. Rich low-level moisture will be present.

DISCUSSION

Western Ukraine into western Romania, eastern Serbia, southern Bulgaria, FYROM, Albania, northenr Greece, southern and central Italy

Rich low-level moisture is present along the convergence zone. Steep lapse rates overlap with this moisture although these have decreased in the last two days. Moderate CAPE up to 1000 J/kg is expected, with highest CAPE near 2000 J/kg expected by latest GFS model run. Skinny CAPE profiles and weak vertical wind shear pose a threat of excessive precipitaion. Some stronger storms may also produce locally large hail. Severe wind gusts are most likely in the eastern portions due to deeper boundary layers.

Northern British Isles

Below a dry intrusion, steep lapse rates form and may allow for weak CAPE. If storms initiate, these could produce severe iwnd gusts geven the strong low-level flow. However, most storms will be rather weak geven the strong shear and weak CAPE.

Turkey

Upslope flow of rich moisture overlaps with steep lapse rates ahead of the approaching trough. Diurnally driven storms can produce locally large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive rain.