Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 11 Jun 2018 14:00 to Mon 11 Jun 2018 18:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 11 Jun 2018 14:37
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

Since the late morning, a number of well-developed supercells has travelled along the northern rim of the highlighted area. Hail up to 6 cm, localized severe wind gusts and flooding have occurred with these storms. No weakening is expected in the next few hours while they move eastward or propagate sutheastward along outflow boundaries. The risk of severe to isolated extreme hail and wind events remains strongly enhanced!

Temperatures around 28C and dewpoints in the upper tens are in place directly south of this convection. CAPE reaches up to 2000 J/kg in this belt according to latest model guidance and the 12z Stuttgart and Kummersbrueck soundings, which also indicate 15 m/s deep-layer shear. Further south, plentiful sunshine with stronger daytime heating and better mixing resulted in temperatures up to 32C, lower dewpoints in the low to mid tens and somewhat lower CAPE (800 J/kg according to the Munich sounding) near the Alps. The associated boundary is rather diffuse, though.

Storms are also initiating over the Austrian Alps. They still seem to struggle against entrainment and remnants of a capping inversion, but will likely intensify soon and extend NE-ward, aided by a short-wave trough that moves in from the southwest. Large hail may occur, and the higher cloud bases point to a particularly enhanced wind risk in case a linear system manages to form.

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