Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Apr 2018 06:00 to Wed 18 Apr 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 17 Apr 2018 06:32
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

No threat levels are issued.

SYNPOSIS and DISCUSSION

Weak pressure and temperature gradients prevail across most of Europe. A mid-level ridge extends from Morocco towards Germany, where a surface high forms.
In the triangle between the Baltic States, Bulgaria and Tunisia, slightly lower 500 hPa geopotential and cooler mid-levels support the formation of scattered, disorganized afternoon thunderstorms. Main initiating mechanisms are provided by a weak, eastward moving cold front over Belarus and by orography anywhere further south.
Warm air advection overspreads western Europe ahead of an Atlantic storm cyclone. The flow over the British Isles is very moist and features strong shear and helicity. Marginal CAPE may build in Ireland, Ulster and Scotland during daytime. A tornado is not ruled out under forming showers. However, this risk appears too low for a level 1, and predicted instability is too shallow for lightning.