Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 24 Mar 2018 06:00 to Sun 25 Mar 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 23 Mar 2018 18:12
Forecaster: TASZAREK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A broad high with cold and stable polar airmass dominates over CNTRL Europe. Jet stream is pushed towards SW Europe and N Africa. On the SW and S periphery of the high, a series of troughs are traveling through Bay of Biscay, W Mediterranean and Aegean Sea. In W Mediterranean thunderstorm activity is expected in the warm section of the trough where enhanced BL's moisture (5-6 g/kg) is advected along with PVA supporting large-scale ascent. Isolated lightning activity is also plausible at the rear flank of the trough where steep lapse rates (> 7.5 K/km) are available as a result of a cold air advection. Although kinematic field affected by the trough looks impressive (high vertical wind shear and helicity), a rather low thermodynamic instability (ML CAPE ~ 200-400 J/kg) limits severe weather potential. However, a local severe event within better organized storm cannot be ruled out. Storms will initiate in the morning hours over Bay of Biscay and in the afternoon hours over W Mediterranean as the trough will become stationary over Balearic Islands. Lightning activity should continue during nighttime. Over E Mediterranean overlap of moisture and lapse rates will be slightly better, but lack of sufficient vertical wind shear will also limit severe weather potential. Thunderstorms will be moving along with an Ewardly traveling shortwave trough, firstly S of Greece, then over Aegean Sea. Lightning activity over W Turkey should remain throughout whole forecast period as the orographic factor will keep convective initiation.