Valid: Mon 05 Mar 2018 06:00 to Tue 06 Mar 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 05 Mar 2018 03:35
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued over the southern Iberian Peninsula mainly for tornadoes and severe convective wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for southern Greece mainly for tornadoes and large hail.
A low pressure system distributed between the British Isles, Iberian Peninsula, Italy and Greece advects unstable air mass with a westerly flow into SW and S Europe, producing conditions for thunderstorms across an extensive area. The jet stream rounds the unstable air over southern Iberian Peninsula, Algeria, Sicily and Greece. Low level warm air advection around Greece generates veering winds with height.
A cold front passes from late morning through afternoon.
CAPE of 300-500 J/kg should be present. SREH over 250/300 m2/s2 can lead to formation of mesocyclones in some convective cells, which may produce a tornado and large hail.However, 0-1 km shear seems not enhanced in the same location in the GFS model, reducing the potential.
0-1 km shear is enhanced over 10-15 m/s in an area of modest MLCAPE over southern Portugal and Spain. This may help form an isolated tornado as well as wind gusts, within a flow stronger than 20 m/s at 1-3 km AGL. A shortwave trough passes in the morning. The jetstream lift enhancement appears to the south of the CAPE area though.