Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 26 Feb 2018 06:00 to Tue 27 Feb 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 25 Feb 2018 23:50
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued across eastern Greece and southern Turkey mainly for excessive convective precipitation and tornado chances.

A level 1 was issued across the northern Adriatic Sea for waterspout type tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A strong high pressure system has built over North Sea and Scandinavia, producing easterly winds advecting cold continental air mass across a large part of Europe. The leading edge of the cold air at low levels reaches S France and N Spain, along with a shortwave trough in upper levels to lift the air and create a snow event. Over Italy and Greece a low pressure system is active, advecting warm unstable air with thunderstorms along the coasts of Greece, Turkey, Cyprus and Syria.

DISCUSSION

Up to about 500 J/kg MLCAPE will impinge along the coastline of Turkey and early on Aegean parts of Greece, as the cold front moves eastward. The front and the higher terrain will force the air to rise and provide persistent conditions for triggering convection, which can lead to tens of millimeters of precipitation. 0-3 km SREH also is enhanced over 250 m2/s2 over land, which can locally help a storm produce a tornado or large hail.
Over Aegean Sea and N Adriatic Sea, perhaps also Tyrrhenian Sea and around Corsica (at night), low level vorticity and unstable air with steep low level lapse rates may trigger waterspouts.