Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 22 Feb 2018 06:00 to Fri 23 Feb 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 21 Feb 2018 23:24
Forecaster: GATZEN

DISCUSSION

An intense cut-off is situated across the west Mediterranean. Steep lapse rates close to its core and some moisture at low levels overlap and weak CAPE is expected. Cool equilibrium levels support some thunderstorms. Weak vertical wind shear and weak CAPE limit severe potential.

Ahead of the cut-off, a weak south-westerly flow is present across the central and east Mediterranean. An elevated mixed layer advects north-east from north Africa and overlaps with rich low-level moisture. CAPE will be around 500 J/kg, but also relatively large CIN is present over the cool sea. Some thunderstorms are forecast. Although vertical wind shear is relatively strong and veers at low levels, severe potential is weak as forcing is limited. Some large hail is forecast with mesocyclones that may form but hardly be sustained for long time.

Over southern Turkey, moist profiles are forecast along with weak CAPE and weak shear. Storms that form pose a weak threat of excessive precipitation. During daytime, some additional storms may also form further inland, but weak CAPE and shear limit severe potential.

At the western flank of the warm air mass, a cold front moves into southern Italy. Thunderstorms are expected to be embedded in a frontal rain band that slowly moves east. Models suggest some overlap of stronger low-level vertical wind shear in the wake of the cold front with some CAPE. Although low levels are likely too stable to support surface-based convection, isolated severe wind gusts are not ruled out in this region.