Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 20 Feb 2018 06:00 to Wed 21 Feb 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 19 Feb 2018 22:00
Forecaster: DAFIS

No threat levels have been issued.

DISCUSSION

As a ridge has been formed in NW Europe, intruding the North Sea with warm and moist air masses, an almost positively-tilted trough is stretched from the Baltic Sea towards Italy and later the models forecast the formation of a cut-off low in W Mediterranean. The steepest lapse rates are found in East Mediterranean Sea where we expect the most active storms, although the absence of DLS and mild CAPE reduce the threats for severe weather. No threat levels have been issued since high precipitating storms will mostly stay offshore in the Ionian Sea where a warm occlusion is organized and the Aegean Sea, with some possible heavy precipitation events at the islands included inside 50% lightning probability areas. Moreover, steep lapse rates and weak low-level wind field create an excellent environment for waterspouts. Thunderstorm activity in the area will be continued on Wednesday.