Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 16 Feb 2018 06:00 to Sat 17 Feb 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 15 Feb 2018 22:43
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

A level 1 is issued for Cyprus and parts of the S Turkish coast (province of Antalya) mainly for excessive convective precipitation and to a lesser degree for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A zonal flow temporarily establishes in the European sector and pushes the latest cold anticyclone back into Russia. The British Isles, southern Scandinavia and north-central Europe are flooded by maritime polar air. Embedded short-wave troughs support regional shower activity, but even over sea surfaces convection will barely grow deep enough to produce any lightning.
The main frontal zone near the surface runs along 48°N. It produces a rainy corridor between Slovakia and northern Spain, especially in association with wave developments, but weak lapse rates at the anticyclonic side of the jetstream will keep the precipitation entirely stratiform.
Convection-wise, the only feature of interest is a cut-off low over the eastern Mediterranean region, discussed below.

DISCUSSION

... E Mediterranean ...

Cold mid-levels on top of warm sea waters create some hundred J/kg of CAPE. The bulk of thunderstorm activity is expected to be embedded in a rain band ahead of the cut-off low. This feature will slowly move eastward and affect the Turkish province of Antalya mainly in the late morning to afternoon and Cyprus mainly overnight. An easterly low-level jet beneath veering mid-level winds enhances 0-3 km shear (10-15 m/s) and storm-relative helicity (maxima above 200 m^2/s2) enough for some storm organization. The main risk is localized flooding, especially at east-facing coasts and slopes. In addition, one or two tornadoes are not ruled out in coastal and offshore areas. The hail and wind risk should be kept low by the expected embedded nature of these storms.
Convection will diminish and become increasingly disorganized and low-topped on the back side of the cut-off low.