Valid: Sun 11 Feb 2018 06:00 to Mon 12 Feb 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 10 Feb 2018 20:25
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
Convective-wise a quiescent forecast period is in store for most parts of Europe. An impulse ejects out of an upper-level trough over the S-CNTRL Mediterranean (positive tilt)and crosses far W-Turkey and the Black Sea. A weakening LL depression crosses the Aegean Sea to the NE.
An outbreak of very cold mid-level air over far NW-Europe sparks a deep cyclone over the North Sea. Steep mid-level lapse rates and meager BL moisture limit the overall thunderstorm risk. The main risk will be an offshore wind event over parts of the North Sea.
A few lightning areas were issued, where a low-end risk for scattered thunderstorms exists. A low-end waterspout risk exists with the Mediterranean convection due to steeper LL lapse rates, but the overall risk is too diffuse for any level areas.
N-Turkey (west of the Pontic Alps) may see an overlap of low-end CAPE and strong DLS and any stronger updraft may be able to produce marginal hail. CAPE seems to be too slim for a level area.