Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 19 Jan 2018 06:00 to Sat 20 Jan 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 18 Jan 2018 21:14
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An extensive tropospheric polar vortex is centered over N-Europe. A cold and dry air mass emanates from that vortex and affects most of N-/E-Europe. With steep mid-level lapse rates atop, weak CAPE signals can be seen in model data mainly for parts of the Norwegian and North Sea. This slightly unstable marine air mass also spills over parts of Benelux, France and Germany. A broad low probability lightning area was issued. The mesoscale will dictate regionally enhanced lightning activity. Any thunderstorm can be accompanied by gusty winds and graupel.

Over the Adriatic Sea, a SE-ward dropping vortex increases coastal convergence from Croatia to Albania. In addition with cooling mid-levels aloft, some offshore activity is also possible. Again, no severe thunderstorm is anticipated. Augmented LL CAPE and local convergence zones may result in a low-end and diffuse waterspout risk.

An upper low over Algeria supports a low-end thunderstorm risk along the coast. No severe activity is forecast.