Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 07 Dec 2017 06:00 to Fri 08 Dec 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 07 Dec 2017 00:11
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

An intense trough amplifies over western Europe. This is associated with a PV intrusion spreading into the UK, Benelux, NW Germany, and W Scandinavia on Thursday morning. Well separated from this PV intrusion rich moisture will be replaced by a cold front from the Baltic States towards Poland and the Alps. Nonetheless, showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast across the North Sea, Irish Sea, and The Channel. Weak CAPE and rather weak shear over the North Sea limit severe potential. Strong wind gusts will be mostly due to strong background flow.

Downstream of the new trough, weak mid-level flow affects Europe with a ridge spreading eastwards. Low geopotential across the Mediterranean may allow for a few showers and thunderstorms given the relatively cool mid-level air mass. However, CAPE is marginal and severe thunderstorms are not forecast even though vertical wind shear increases late in the period.