Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 13 Nov 2017 06:00 to Tue 14 Nov 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 13 Nov 2017 04:48
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for SW Turkey and Aegean Sea mainly for excessive convective precipitation, large hail and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for the Adriatic Balkan coastal region mainly for exccessive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

An active low has installed itself over Italy and transports cold airmass from high latitudes over the warm Mediterranean waters. Convective activity will occur in the cold airmass west and east of Corsica and Sardinia, as well as along the cold front, which spans from Sardina to N Adriatic in the early morning, and Sicily-C Adriatic in the evening. After that, GFS shows a loss of theta-e gradients while warm airmass storms continue in the Adriatic and Ionean Sea. These storms hold more water and can trigger near the shore by convergence and orographic lifting. However, CAPE and PW values nor model precipitation are alarming.
The Aegean and SW Turkey are affected by a trough coming from the southern Mediterranean. CAPE near 700-1200 J/kg. Strong lift ahead of this trough will trigger widespread convection. The eastern part will be under good enough deep layer shear to produce large hail and perhaps tornadoes. Excessive convective rain sums will likely be reported in some places.
Waterspouts can occur, likely in convergence and vorticity zones in the cold air mass where low level lapse rates are steep, as well as along the cold front.