Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 12 Oct 2017 06:00 to Fri 13 Oct 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 11 Oct 2017 22:24
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for southern Sweden, north-east Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Belarus, western Russia, and northern Ukraine mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

High pressure over Africa expands into western Europe. At its northern flank, an intense trough moves across Scandinavia and digs over eastern Europe at the end of the forecast period. At low levels, relatively rich moisture advects into the Baltic Sea region ahead of a cold front. Steep lapse rates spread eastwards with the trough also supported by low-level stretching below the approaching PV intrusion. These lapse rates will partly overlap with the moist air mass, resulting in weak CAPE. Lift along the cold front is expected to support thunderstorms across the Baltic Sea region in the morning hours that spread east or south-east. Moisture decreases over Belarus and further east and thunderstorm potential gradually decreases. Level 1 is introduced due to the strong vertical wind shear exceeding 12 m/s in the lowest km. Severe wind gusts are forecast and also a few tornadoes are not ruled out close to the Baltic Sea, where low-level buoyancy is best.