Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 14 Apr 2017 06:00 to Sat 15 Apr 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 13 Apr 2017 18:31
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A progressive flow regime affects N-Europe with cold and unsettled conditions. An extensive ridge influences SW-Europe with warm and partially stable conditions.

One focus for isolated thunderstorms exists beneath the frontal zone over the W-Ukraine/S-Belarus, where the passage of an upper trough and a cyclonically curved 35 m/s mid-level jet induce adequate upward motions for CI in a weakly capped environment. Gusty winds and graupel will be the main hazard due to weak DLS.

Daytime driven pulsating thunderstorms are forecast next to the Mediterranean Sea from Spain to Italy to SE-Europe. In general, CAPE and shear remain too weak for organized activity. However, regionally enhanced BL moisture support enhanced MLCAPE with stronger updrafts and an isolated large hail event within the lightning areas can't be excluded. The overall coverage remains too low for a local upgrade.