Valid: Wed 12 Apr 2017 06:00 to Thu 13 Apr 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 12 Apr 2017 06:53
No threat levels have been issued.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
A lively circulation pattern is observed over the northern half of Europe with a strong zonal flow, in which short-wave troughs (and attendant frontal systems) are embedded. Despite the presence of cold mid-tropospheric temperatures aloft, meager lower tropospheric moisture will not allow for strong enough latent instability to sustain a more pronounced risk of lightning. Towards the south, more abundant lower tropospheric moisture is observed with dewpoints around 10 deg C. In combination with steeper lapse rates under the pool of lower geopotentials, marginal latent instability with up to several hundreds J/kg of MLCAPE will develop over some regions. Initiation will be tied to local convergence zones and topographic features with convection being mostly in the form of multicell clusters in the presence of only weak vertical wind shear. Sub-severe hail and gusty winds may occur with stronger cells, but no threat levels are warranted atm.