Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 10 Apr 2017 06:00 to Tue 11 Apr 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 10 Apr 2017 01:04
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

No threat levels issued.

SYNOPSIS

Between a Scandinavian low and a high pressure system west of Ireland, cool air mass is entering western Europe, replacing significantly warmer air in which modest MLCAPE of 300-600 J/kg should be available at maximum between central France and Czech Republic. There is a lack of vertical wind shear on the warm side of the cold front (10 m/s DLS at best). The front is in relatively dry air, which could frustrate convective initiation by entrainment. Near Lithuania CAPE reduces to small values while low level shear increases. The latter might pose a slightly enhanced chance of an isolated tornado, should convection become organized.