Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 05 Apr 2017 06:00 to Thu 06 Apr 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 05 Apr 2017 06:09
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery reveals several short-wave trough currently in progress over Europe. The first one is crossing W Scandinavia as of Wednesday 06 UTC, associated with the influx of arctic maritime airmass that will advect to Central Europe behind the progressing cold front by Thursday morning. Another short-waves, or small scale lows, are connected to the extensive, but shallow pool of lower geopotentials observed over much of S and SE Europe. Short-waves are currently located over NE Spain, Switzerland / NW Italy and Hungary / Serbia / Ukraine borders and the Ionian Sea.

Several regions in Europe may experience isolated to scattered thunderstorms today. Most of the activity will be associated with the lower geopotentials over S / SE Europe with the moderately steep lapse rates (6.5 - 7 K/km) and marginal lower tropospheric moisture (dew points 5 - 10 deg C), as evident from 00 UTC soundings. Such combination will allow for up to a few hundreds of J/kg of MLCAPE, especially in the areas with abundant daytime surface heating. Due to relatively weak latent instability and only marginal vertical wind shear (DLS below or around 10 m/s), no significant severe threat is forecast. However, thunderstorms will be frequently accompanied by sub-severe hail with few stones perhaps attaining marginally severe criteria (around 2 cm in diameter). Gusty winds may accompany storms in the areas, where surface heating creates deep boundary layer with inverted-V profiles. Storms will be initiated along the local convergence zones, mountain chains or along the advancing cold front in case of C Europe.