Valid: Mon 27 Mar 2017 06:00 to Tue 28 Mar 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 26 Mar 2017 23:15
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
No threat levels issued.
A mid-level high pressure system is situated over North Sea, central and southeastern Europe. An old Iberian low is retreating to the Atlantic and an Aegean low shifts eastward over Turkey. These systems have remaining mid-level shortwave troughs active over N Spain/SW France (shifting northwards) and S Italy/SW Balkan (shifting southwards). In most regions there is just 5-7 g/kg lowest 1000 m mixing ratio under BL to 500 hPa lapse rates of around 7 K/km (7.5 over Spain/France) resulting in modest MLCAPE values of 100-300 J/kg. 0-6 km DLS vectors greater than 20 m/s are running over these areas, with 250 m2/s2 0-3 km SREH near the western Pyrenees at 15Z and east of Sicily at 03Z, in unstable air. The low CAPE may not help to realise storm rotation, but if convection nevertheless could withstand the shear it might produce a local marginally large hail event.