Valid: Mon 13 Mar 2017 06:00 to Tue 14 Mar 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 13 Mar 2017 00:57
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
Levels 1 and 2 were issued for southeastern Spain mainly for excessive convective rainfall.
SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION
South of a belt of high surface pressure (Azores-Baltic countries), low pressure areas dominate over the Iberian Peninsula and the Black Sea/Turkey area. The Iberian low has cut off from its parent northern Atlantic trough and is drifting southward through Spain. Its PV anomaly broadens and stimulates a strong low-level convergence at a stagnating cold front over southeastern Spain, which assumes an orientation perpendicular to the coastline, with a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE supporting deep convection. GFS and WRF (e.g. meteoblue) models predict long-lasting thunderstorms along the cold front impinging on a small region mainly between Alicante and Valencia. Orographic lifting of the strong northeasterly moisture transport in the lower levels is maximized in the level 2 region, and provides fuel for convection as well as stratiform precipitation. Rain sums upwards of 100mm are possible, and flash floods are likely.
1-3 km mean wind speed near 25 m/s implies potential for severe wind gusts and causes 0-1 km shear over 15 m/s and SREH over 250 m2/s2 which helps induce tornadogenesis. Therefore an isolated tornado is not ruled out.
MUCAPE for elevated parcels increases over N Algeria where the cold front can trigger storms at night, in a highly sheared environment supporting large hail as the main threat.