Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 10 Feb 2017 06:00 to Sat 11 Feb 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 09 Feb 2017 19:39
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Rather cold mid-levels prevail over all of Europe. Numerous upper level cold-core lows or cyclonic vortices with attendant surface depressions affect many parts of Europe like parts of Portugal and far W-Spain, E-France, the North Sea and the Ionia Sea and surroundings.
A cold and dry air mass covers the forecast area with some moistening over offshore regions (e.g. Mediterranean). A few areas were highlighted by lightning areas, as steep mid-level lapse rates and modest BL moisture offer some low MLCAPE build-up. Despite an localized heavy rainfall risk over S-Greece/S-Italy due to repeatedly onshore moving and temporarily training convection, no severe risk exists and even this risk is too marginal for a level 1. Especially over Portugal, strongest storms may be capable of producing graupel and gusty winds during the afternoon hours. A low-end waterspout risk exists between Sicily/Malta and Crete.