Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 28 Jan 2017 06:00 to Sun 29 Jan 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 28 Jan 2017 00:51
Forecaster: TASZAREK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A broad high is covering E and parts of CNTRL Europe. Slowly weakening long-wave trough with arctic airmass travels trough NW Europe. A cut-off is placed over W Mediterranean and travels SE.

Weak instability up to 200-400 J/kg is developing in cold sector in NW Europe thanks to an impressive 7.5 K/km lapse rates and a rather poor boundary layer moisture (2-3 g/kg MIXR). A low-topped convection with weak updrafts and marginal lightning potential will develop in the morning hours and should fade in the later afternoon/evening (except a possible isolated nighttime convection over the North Sea).

Within the support of QG-lift, moderate lapse rates and 6-8 g/kg MIXR moisture (CAPE ~ 300-500 J/kg), an enhanced probability for lightning is available on parts of W Mediterranean where a weakening cut-off travels SE. Convection will develop in the morning hours on its SW flank and later partly on its E flank, around Sicily. Lightning activity should drop in the late afternoon/nighttime hours. Due to lack of good shear/instability overlap severe convective storms are unlikely.