Valid: Tue 17 Jan 2017 06:00 to Wed 18 Jan 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Jan 2017 19:24
A level 1 was issued for parts of East Mediterranean mainly for excessive precipitation, large amounts of small hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION
The long-wave trough that stretches from NW Russia towards Central Mediterranean results in very low geopotentials and continuous convective phenomena over almost the whole Mediterranean basin. At the surface, a high pressure system is moving from the Atlantic over the mainland of Europe during Tuesday and strengthens to about 1040 hPa over Germany. On the contrary, "Victor", a deep cyclone over Italy (named by the National Observatory of Athens), creates a favorable environment for DMC events.
Very steep mid-level lapse rates and moist PBL can build up to 800 J/kg of MLCAPE according to NWP models. The main risk will be found at the coasts of Italy, Greece and Turkey as strong convergence zones develop. Moreover, sufficient DLS values for the development of multicells are forecast for SE Greece and West Turkey, where DLS of 15-22 m/s will overlap with 400-800 J/kg of CAPE. Excessive precipitation and large amounts of hail will be the main threats. Finally, isolated severe convective wind gusts cannot be ruled out where multicells will develop, inside level 1 area, as well as waterspouts (non-convective wind gusts will be of much more concern).