Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 16 Jan 2017 06:00 to Tue 17 Jan 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 15 Jan 2017 22:24
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

No threat levels issued.

SYNOPSIS

A blocking mid-level high pressure system is in place just west of the European mainland, while a stationary trough stretches from Scandinavia to an active low filled with deep convection over the central Mediterranean Sea. At surface level high pressure builds up over Western and Central Europe and steep pressure gradients surround the Mediterranean low, causing windy conditions. Northern to northeastern flow advects cold air towards the western Mediterranean. A shortwave trough in GFS seems to sweep around the west side of the low and cause an increase of thunderstorm activity as it arrives before SIcily in the early morning of Tuesday. No organized severe storm activity should occur, as vertical shear tends to be weak. However, some concentrated convergence and vorticity zones could spin up waterspouts.