Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 11 Dec 2016 06:00 to Mon 12 Dec 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 11 Dec 2016 01:30
Forecaster: KAHRAMAN

SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION

Europe is under effect of two high pressure systems in the east and west, both of which drive stable air masses, one very cold and dry, and the latter warmer and wetter. A cyclone develops on a short-wave over C Europe and rapidly moves towards E Ukraine during the forecast period. Cold air advection in the north results in up to 100-150 J/kg MLCAPE in a narrow band from SW Norwegian coasts to Denmark and N Germany, which is expected to favour air mass thunderstorms around mid-day. The Mediterranean Sea is calm, but with passage of a cold drop in the upper troposphere, patches of ~100-200 J/kg MLCAPE exist on locations where longer fetches of moist advection support in low levels. With lower than 10 m/s 0-6 km shear, storm organization will be well limited. A waterspout is not ruled out around Italian coasts, but due to very low instability, no threat levels are issued. The instability is expected to get stronger in the E Mediterranean towards the end of the forecast period.