Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 30 Nov 2016 06:00 to Thu 01 Dec 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 30 Nov 2016 06:00
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been isssued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A ridge stretches from N Africa through the W Mediterranean to British Isles. To the W, a cut-off low is located offshore of Iberia, with DMC forming in the center and at the forward flank of the low. In the environment of lower tropospheric mixing ratios around 9/kg, few hundreds J/kg of MLCAPE will be available. With DLS around 10 m/s, severe weather probability will be quite low. Storms may reach SW coast of Iberia by Thursday morning.

To the W of the ridge, a broad belt of NW-ly flow advects cold airmass towards the Mediterranean. A base of the large trough further amplifies towards SE, reaching the Middle East during the forecast period. Satellite imagery reveals numerous storms forming at the forward flank of the trough in the environment of strong DLS. However, these storms are already out of the forecast area. Further storms may form S of Turkey as a short-wave trough approaches from the Ionian and the Aegean Sea. Severe weather threat will be greatly limited especially over the Aegean Sea by a rapid depletion of the low-level moisture from N with CAA regime behind the cold front.