Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 11 Nov 2016 06:00 to Sat 12 Nov 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 10 Nov 2016 15:43
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for excessive rain mainly for Montenegro and parts of NW Albania.


A rossby wave is situated over Scandinavia with numerous impulses along its periphery. One of those is forecast to exit the mainland of CNTRL Europe, moving atop the warm Adriatic Sea. As the pool of cold mid-level air crosses warmer SSTs, modest SBCAPE (400-800 J/kg) is expected mainly over offshore and coastal areas of the CNTRL Mediterranean. Main activity occurs along eastward facing coasts, where frictionally forced BL convergence enhances depth of BL moisture with most robust CAPE values expected. Higher SSTs over the Ionian/SE Tyrrhenian Sea also support more robust CAPE with peaks of near 1kJ/kg all the way up to the S-Adriatic Sea.

CAPE shear overlap is not good and hence only expect temporarily better organized convection with bursts of heavy rain, graupel and gusty winds. An isolated tornado event along the E-coasts of the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian Sea can't be excluded due to augmented LL shear and some CAPE overlap. Overall risk remains too marginal for a level area.
However a confined level 1 was issued for Montenegro and NW Albania as elongated fetch of weakly capped and quite unstable air points to this region. Enhanced 850 S/SW-erly winds advect moisture to the level area and temporarily training clusters with heavy rain can occur...mainly to the end of the forecast. Due to the progressive nature of the synoptic-scale features, do not expect extremely high rainfall amounts, but local flash flooding is possible.
N-Adriatic Sea may see good conditions for a few waterspouts during the late afternoon hours, before cold/dry katabatic (Bora) winds surge to the S/SE.

A few thunderstorms are forecast over the W-Black Sea before noon and gusty winds may occur with 15 m/s 0-3 km shear. This activity evolves in response to a rapidly eastbound moving mid-level wave and hence expect rapid decay of thunderstorm activity from W to E. Again, overall risk seems too marginal for a level area.

Isolated lightning activity is possible over Ireland and W-UK during the night as a strong front moves east, but nothing severe is forecast. Main risk seems to be locally augmented wind gusts with convectively enhanced downdrafts.

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