Valid: Mon 10 Oct 2016 06:00 to Tue 11 Oct 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 10 Oct 2016 03:43
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for the Mediterranean Sea mainly for isolated tornadoes, large hail and excessive convective precipitation.
A mid level dipolar pattern is in place with a large high over Scandinavia and a low over central Europe. At surface level the low is more developed over the Mediterranean Sea, with a mid level trough and cold front moving from western parts of the Meditteranean to the southern Balkan. In the warm air advection regime about 1000 J/kg MLCAPE will form near southern Italy. The entire unstable airmass region lies under a 500 hPa jet stream, causing 15-20 m/s 0-6 km shear, but not as good low-level shear. Therefore mostly multicell clusters/MCS and isolated supercells should develop. Large hail is possible. Storm motion is fast enough to not make excessive precipitation a more than isolated threat, except on coastlines where storms may cluster for longer periods like W Greece. Waterspouts can occur in convergence zones around Italy and W Balkan.