Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 18 Sep 2016 10:00 to Sun 18 Sep 2016 14:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 18 Sep 2016 10:13
Forecaster: BEYER

A strong low level convergence line has formed that extents from the Ioanian Sea until the coastline. It can also nicely be seen by a cloud band in the SAT images and is consistent with the current model forecasts. Along this convergence line very humid airmasses are present with 16 g/kg of mixing ratio just off the coast.

Along this line quite persistent storms with a high lightning density have formed that also effect the coastline of far Southern Albania and Northwestern Greece. Theses storms are not well covered by the precipitation output of models.

The main threat of the thunderstorms with this high humidity and high amount of liquid water (ppw: around 35 mm) should be excessive precipitation ... especially if one keeps in mind the persistency.

It is quite likely that this storm activity will persist for the next hours until the strong convergent flow is forecasted to get weaker.

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