Valid: Sat 13 Aug 2016 06:00 to Sun 14 Aug 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 13 Aug 2016 02:12
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
A broad 1020 hPa ridge inhitibing convective activity covers most of the SW and S Europe. Cut-off over W Ukraine provides southerly advection of warm, moist and unstable air mass on its eastern flank. Within this air mass, severe thunderstorms producing large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes are possible in W Russia. However, this area lies on the border/outside of the forecast domain, therefore no level threats are issued. Within the passage of the shortwave trough with well defined warm sector, a weak convective activity is possible in parts of CNTRL and N Europe. Thanks to diurnal heating, a low-CAPE/low-shear isolated weak convection with marginal potential of producing severe weather is possible in the afternoon hours. Except alpine area, probability for lightning is marginal.