Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 20 Jun 2016 16:00 to Mon 20 Jun 2016 21:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 20 Jun 2016 16:38
Forecaster: TASZAREK

This mesoscale discussion is issued to highlight a high risk for extremely severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging wind gusts, torrential rain and significant tornadoes.

Current sounding observations from Szeged and Beograd indicate strong airflow in the mid and low levels with DLS up to 30-35 m/s and MLS up to 20 m/s. Surface observations in N and CNTRL Serbia indicate 30/20 temperature/dew point observations that with given sounding profiles develops surface based CAPE up to 2500-3000 J/kg. There is already CI in the CNTRL Serbia and rapidly evolves into supercell. In addition to aforementioned conditions and 250-400 m2/s2 SRH with slightly clockwise-curved hodograph profiles, a quickly northwardly moving thunderstorms may be capable of producing giant hail, damaging wind gusts and torrential rain. Given isolated convective mode and favourable wind profile in lowest levels (> 10 m/s LLS), a significant tornado event is possible. A more widespread convection may cluster into squall lines and given 20 m/s MLS, may be capable of producing a widespread damaging wind gusts. However, the most likely scenario include discreet supercells.

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