Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 16 Jun 2016 16:00 to Fri 17 Jun 2016 02:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 16 Jun 2016 16:09
Forecaster: TASZAREK

Summary
Thunderstorms are currently developing within shortwave trough in E Bavaria. Further CI in the next hours is expected over Czech Republic and SW Poland. Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely, tornadoes are not rulled out.

Discussion
In a cloud-free corridor extending from E Bavaria to SW Poland, a strong diurnal heating takes place. Given available moisture and sounding measurements, instability may jump up in the next hours up to 1500 J/kg over CNTRL Czech Repulic and SW Poland. Although current meteorological observations include lower dew point and temperatures (~ 23/15 in the area of Czech Republic), and thus lower instability than NWP models indicated, strong forcing along the shortwave axis within converging winds and strong vertical wind shear (DLS ~ 30-35 m/s: 12 UTC observations from Kuemmersbruck. Praga, WrocBaw, Prostejov) with veering wind profile (SRH ~ 300-400 m2/s2) may favour the occurrence of supercell thunderstorms, that given an available CIN, may remain discreet for some time. Within these a large hail and severe wind gusts are likely. A tornado threat is also included due to increasing LLS in the evening hours and sizeable 0-1km SRH.

Current thinking is that a few supercells with hail and wind potential developing within the shortwave will evolve over Czech Republic into MCS and move further to Poland in the evening and nighttime hours, posing a threat of severe wind and heavy precipitation. A few isolated cells with large hail and wind severe wind potential ahead of MCS are not rulled out in SW and S Poland.