Valid: Wed 18 May 2016 06:00 to Thu 19 May 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 18 May 2016 06:02
No threat levels have been issued.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
Also during this period, a lack of overlap of abundant latent instability and strong vertical wind shear will limit the chances of severe thunderstorms over Europe. The primary reason for the lack of severe thunderstorms is meager low-level moisture due to the recent arctic outbreak over much of Europe.
Nevertheless, several areas will at least experience isolated to scattered thunderstorms. This activity will be associated with two lows at mid troposphere. The first one will move from the British Isles towards France. The second one will stall over Ukraine. In both cases, cold temperatures at mid-troposphere will enhance lapse rates, contributing to marginal CAPE values. Low topped thunderstorms may be capable of hail, perhaps in some cases falling in large quantities. In case of eastern France, slight overlap with stronger vertical wind shear will exist as 0-3 km shear will reach up to 15 m/s, promoting more organised structures. Still, overall severe threat should be too low to warrant a Lvl 1.