Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 27 Apr 2016 06:00 to Thu 28 Apr 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 27 Apr 2016 00:07
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for eastern Belgium and central Germany mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Situation over whole Europe is dominated by a large mid to upper tropospheric low centered over Denmark. Unseasonably cold airmass has been advected from the Artic through Great Britain towards central Europe. Core of the low is associated with steep lapse rates reaching 7 to 7.5 K/km from surface to approximately 500 hPa, as is evidenced by numerous Tuesday 12 UTC soundings from NW Germany and UK. Also during Wednesday, scattered low topped DMC will form in bands and a rather large area of western to central Europe deserves at least a low prob lightning area. Despite the steep lapse rates, instability will stay marginal due to the meager mixing ratios up to 4 g/kg. A lvl 1 is introduced for parts of Germany and Belgium, where a belt of 850 hPa flow up to 20 m/s may contribute to severe wind gusts at the surface with any stronger downdraft. Otherwise, sub-severe hail / soft hail and gusty winds will be common in this situation.