Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 20 Apr 2016 07:00 to Thu 21 Apr 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 20 Apr 2016 06:43
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Blocking pattern ensues over Europe as a ridge stretches from the Central Mediterranean towards France and the British Isles. A cyclonic vortex remains quasi-stationary northwest of the Iberian penninsula and a deep trough lingers over eastern Europe with a short-wave rotating around its base towards the Balkans area. DMC will be associated with these two low geopotential features. Only isolated to scattered weakly electrified convection is forecast with the latter one due to the general lack of substantial low-level moisture. More abundant moisture is forecast over Iberia, where several hundreds J/kg of MLCAPE are simulated by NWP in the core of the vortex. As stronger mid tropospheric flow is displaced eastward of the core, no significant overlap of CAPE and DLS is forecast. Nevertheless, stronger multicellular storms may be capable of marginally large hail, especially in the eastern section of the thunderstorm area.