Valid: Sat 02 Apr 2016 06:00 to Sun 03 Apr 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 02 Apr 2016 03:15
No threat levels issued.
Most of the CNTRL Europe is covered with high centered over Poland that inhibits development of DMC. Some local convective precipitation is expected on the western flank of the high (mostly France), where within southerly advection of moist air mass (mixing ratio 8-10 g/kg), some isolated cells are possible. However, due to weak lapse rates and marginal/lack of thermodynamic instability, DMC with lightning is unlikely. Low probability of thunderstorms falls over marine areas N of Portugal where approaching long wave along with frontal zones will result in isolated Cb clouds capable of producing lightning. Another lightning threat falls on Tunisia where DMC will develop within cut-off with rich boundary layers moisture and lapse rates. However, due to strong cap, convection should faint after 12 UTC. Isolated Cb cells are also expected in the afternoon hours in parts of Bulgaria, Greece and FYROM where a local moisture convergence is predicted by NWP models.