Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 26 Mar 2016 06:00 to Sun 27 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 26 Mar 2016 06:35
Forecaster: TASZAREK

A level 1 was issued for Ireland mainly for the severe wind gusts and in lesser extent for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A high covering S Europe and a ridge forcing up to CNTRL part of the continent inhibits convective activity. A cut-off with wave influencing Balkan Peninsula is located over Ukraine, but due to poor moisture and a lack of steep lapse rates, thunderstorms are unlikely. Isolated convective cells capable of producing occasional lightning are possible near Hungary and SE of Greece in the late forecast period.

The highest probability for thunderstorms during forecast validity is placed around British Isles where the passage of the cold front within the long wave trough is expected. Mixing ratios ahead of the cold air in the warm section will reach up to 7-8 /kg, but due to lack of good lapse rates, almost no CAPE will be available. Isolated convection will develop mostly behind the cold front over marine areas where lapse rates will jump to 7.5 K/km. Due to poor moisture and a low-topped convection with free convective layer of 3-4 km, only small probability for lightning without level threats is issued. Exception concerns Ireland where around 12 UTC a central section of the trough with increased vertical wind shear will pass. Thus an isolated severe wind gusts of convective origin cannot be ruled out. However, due to low equilibrium levels it is questionable if a wind shear confined mostly in 4-6 km AGL layer will contribute to a convective wind gust enhancement.