Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 24 Mar 2016 06:00 to Fri 25 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 23 Mar 2016 23:38
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for southern Turkey mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Low geopotential extents across eastern and southern Europe. An embedded sharp trough axis from the Baltic States towards Poland and the northern Balkans will erode forming two separated closed vortices centred across the west Ukraine and southern Serbia at the end of the period. Given dry low-level air masses, only weak showers or thunderstorms are forecast near the trough centres, with a higher probability over the Balkans.

South-eastern Europe is influenced by a frontal zone ahead of the European trough. Cold air advection sets in from the west, but weak instability is expected in a moist air mass. Some thunderstorms are forecast, but overall threat of severe storms is limited given weak instability and forcing. The highest potential is expected across southern Turkey, where strong vertical wind shear overlaps with instability and lift, and multicells may be capable of producing large hail. If supercells can form, tornadoes are not ruled out.