Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 20 Mar 2016 06:00 to Mon 21 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 19 Mar 2016 23:15
Forecaster: TASZAREK

No threat levels are issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A blocking pattern of ridge extending from Azores to British Isles continue to separate Europe from warm marine Atlantic air masses. DMC and thus thunderstorms are only expected within Iberian Peninsula and SW France where a stationary cut-off provides a source of steep lapse rates and QG-lift. Boundary layer's moisture up to 6-7 g/kg allows CAPE only up to 400-800 J/kg, mostly in weakly sheared environment. Threat for thunderstorms with the potential of producing isolated severe wind gusts falls on SW and E Spanish coastal zone where a "jet" of DLS (up to 30 m/s) associated with S flank of the trough will be placed. However, due to mostly low-topped convection in these area, it will be unlikely for the updrafts to benefit from such shear. Hail up to 2 cm is possible over entire Iberian Peninsula within the forecast period. An Isolated thunderstorm are also possible within neighborhood of Sicilia and Corsica Islands. However, due to a strong cap, CI is questionable.